Weekly Market Outlook 3.30.25
Last week was the last full week of the quarter and we saw some interesting price action as the week progressed. We opened the week with that gap up and out of the previous range. This pushed us up and over the gap down from March 9th which had not been filled until then. As I mentioned in last weeks outlook, should we continue to hold this gap and go scenario to watch overhead levels of 20,371, 20,538 and 20,666. The initial rally Sunday into Monday was resisted by the 20,371 level until early Tuesday when we broke it and it acted as support up to the next level at 20,538 at the close of the day. This caught buyers offsides it seems into the open on Wednesday and the sellers took control to close out the week. The flush came into support at the gap up zone, based out and then finished Friday with a non stop seller into the close. Overall it appeared to be a bull trap as the recovery back to highs failed. Moving ahead to this new week/first week of the month, we have some interesting days that could either get the bid to step back in, or, the melt continues. Either way, it will be exciting to watch and trade.
Later I will post up a chart from the IG weekend chart that shows we could be opening tonight with a gap down to that 19,134 level.
RED FOLDER DATA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:
First week of a new month and a new quarter, yes we are still headline risk driven but this week these numbers will move markets. Tariffs get implemented on Wednesday so pair that with some of these points and you will be in for some volatility. NFP always is a mover so trade cautiously around these times.
EARNINGS FOR THE WEEK:
With the quarter closing Monday, that is all but it for the earnings. Lucky for us a new one is right around the corner so if you enjoy these plays stay tuned. For us here its a non event week on this aspect of the data. Good to always be aware of releases, or the lack there of.
HEADLINES FOR THE WEEK:
The almighty war + tariff talk. Could be an interesting factor if you are a Crude trader. Could also be market moving should it push the war either way. Stay Tuned.
Not a huge market mover immediately, however something to watch as it progresses.
Should Elon take X (xAI) public again this could be an interesting name to look out for. Even watch TSLA for some action as a sympathy type play.
If NVDA is considered a value stock at these levels, as I kind of posted about on X last Friday, then it could lead the charge back to the upside with some help from its other Mag 7 partners. Just an opinion article but could be some common thoughts here. NVDA did hold up slightly better during the melt on Friday so I see some resilience here.
If this is something you are interested in Bloomberg has a Tariff Tracker. Click the image to check it out. Come April 2 the Tariffs come into full force, lets see how the market reacts as I feel much of it has been priced in.
More from above.
This Extreme Fear persists, ticking down 1 point now to a 22. Friday’s selling could keep us in this state even longer. See how markets open and react to this, could we be in for a green April or continued pain before we recover?
As mentioned in the open, here is the IG market analysis from the weekend trading. This shows that we are running into the lows from a few weeks ago at open and we will see how it correlates once we do. At the time I am writing this the futures are still closed. This is a major structure point for the past few weeks and without new data do we continue to dip or is it a major bounce level. As you can see above their clients are 71% Long from this spot so max pain is lower, however sometimes majority could get us in the right direction.
Looking ahead to my NQ levels for this week:
NQ DAILY CHART SINCE 2024
Starting with the broad long term chart, I cleaned all the levels off so you can see where we stand since the start of 2024. This chart is a reference for where we could be headed short to medium term. Long term always leads to highs so I am not too concerned there. My main level that needs to hold is 18,400. This was the September low zone and pre election rally point. It would be key to hold as far as optimism in markets and where many may be looking for it to bounce. Overall do I think we get there, it is possible but will depend on how we digest these tariffs this week.
5 Min NQ chart
As I mentioned above the 19,134 level will be important as a battle ground here and through the week. Levels below are 18,707 and ultimate low of the week and the line in the sand is the 18,241 level. We should be aware of our upside levels through all of last week and into that 21,000 level. Be adaptive and allow the markets to direct you which way and which levels to be using.
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